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Offline Nate

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FYSA
« on: January 23, 2015, 06:19:38 PM »
ISIL:

 

On Tuesday 20 January 2015,  a video surfaced of a masked man wielding a

knife and  claiming to be an Islamic State member threatening to kill two

Japanese men they had kidnapped unless Japan paid $200 million dollars to

ISL within 72-hours. Japanese officials believe that the deadline will end

at approximately 1450 (Japan Time) on 23 January 2015. Japan is continuing

efforts with the international community to release the hostages. Foreign

Minister Fumio Kishida released a statement saying, "Amid a severe

situation, we will make our best efforts to ensure an early release of the

hostage". When asked whether they will respond to negotiations for ransom,

Kishida stated, "Our country will never give in to terrorism. We will

continue to fight terrorism in partnership with other countries".

 

Comment: The ransom amount is the same amount that Japan's Prime Minister

recently pledged as a contribution against ISIL and to aid refugees during a

recent tour in the Middle East. This is likely a statement by ISIL, as they

believe Japan's contribution is merely aimed at killing Muslims, though

Japanese officials have disputed that claim.

 

Syria:

 

After being forced to retreat by Kurdish forces in Kobani, ISIL is likely

going to target Hasakah in Syria next. There are reports that ISIL is

massing forces for an offensive attack to capture Hasakah.

 

Comment: It is understandable that ISIL would target Hasakah from a

strategic standpoint, as it dominates the roads between Mosul and Raqqa,

both which ISIL currently controls. It is also the southern access to

Jazeera canton of the Kurdish Rojava region. If it does come to a clash in

the area, there is no doubt U.S. led airstrikes will play an important role

as they did in Kobani.

 

Yemen: The Houthi rebellion, which began in late 2004, has allegedly reached

a point that the Yemeni government has stated it will resign and give in to

the rebels according to officials. This news is likely to do with the

rebellion capturing areas outside the presidential palace earlier this week.

More reporting will occur once more information is released.

 

Comment: For the situation to reach this level is a very significant event.

As of right now, there is not enough information released to make an

assessment, though this news could have drastic effects if the Yemeni

government follows through.

 

Saudi Arabia:

King Abdallah died. His half-brother Crown Prince Salman is King and his

brother Muqrin is the new Crown Prince, Neither man is young, but the

succession is clear for now.   

Special comment: Be prepared for policy changes. The instinctive reaction of

living systems is to contract during times of internal stress, and even more

so during a leadership crisis. Leadership transition is a time of

vulnerability. Most systems increase their defensive vigilance during that

period.   Applying that to Saudi Arabia, guards will be extra vigilant to

protect the new King and the Crown Prince.

 

Yemen:

President Hadi submitted a letter of resignation to parliament. He

reportedly wrote that the country had reached a dead end. Parliament has not

yet accepted the resignation and will deliberate it when it convenes on 25

January, according to the official news agency.   The Houthis control the

capital, but have been careful to state that they have not taken over the

government and will not comment on the situation until after parliament

makes a decision. The Houthis consider Hadi the president of the country

still.           

Comment: Few news outlets have reported that one of the major Houthi

grievances against the Hadi government is that the draft constitution would

establish a federal state in Yemen. The leader of the movement, Abdulmalik

al Houthi, insists on a unitary state.

 

AFRICA:

 

NIGERIA:

 

A German hostage kidnapped by Boko Haram in Nigeria six months ago has been

freed after a military raid led by Cameroonian forces and their allies, the

Cameroon presidency said Wednesday. "A special operation led by Cameroonian

armed forces along with security services of friendly nations succeeded this

night in freeing Robert Nitsch Eberhard, a German citizen abducted in

Nigeria in July 2014 by the Boko Haram sect," the presidency said in a

statement.

 

COMMENTS: Boko Haram has seized control of towns and villages in north-east

Nigeria and launched raids into Cameroon.  It is not clear which countries

contributed to the operation to free Robert Nitsch Eberhard.  Founded in

2002, Boko Haram initially focused on opposing Western education.  Boko

Haram means "Western education is forbidden" in the Hausa language.  Boko

Haram launched military operations in 2009 to create an Islamic state.  They

have abducted hundreds, including at least 200 schoolgirls and control

several north-eastern towns.  Thousands have been killed, mostly in

north-eastern Nigeria; Boko Haram has also attacked police and UN

headquarters in capital, Abuja. 

 

Nigeria's national security adviser has urged the electoral commission to

delay next month's elections to allow more time for voter card distribution.

Sambo Dasuki, speaking in London, said 30 million cards had been distributed

over the last year but the same number still remained to be handed out.  The

elections, scheduled for 14 February, are the first in Nigeria to require

voters to have biometric cards.  The measure was introduced to guard against

electoral fraud.

 

COMMENTS:  Current Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has called for

substantial corruption reform in recent years. He has recently come under

fire for failing to effectively combat the Boko Haram insurgency in the

northern portion of the country. The mass displacement of people is thought

to benefit his bid for re-election by preventing potential voters from

registering for voter cards.  Financial discrepancies of Nigeria's oil

revenues and the US freezing of $458 million have also cast into doubt

President Jonathan's seriousness combating, and perhaps complicity,

corruption. Delaying next month's election is also thought to benefit

President Jonathan in a tight election race.

 

EBOLA:

 

There has been a "turning point" in the Ebola crisis, with cases falling in

the three affected countries, World Health Organization officials say.  Just

eight cases were detected in Liberia in the last week down from a peak of

500-a-week in September. Guinea and Sierra Leone have also seen falls. The

WHO said the figures were the "most promising" since the outbreak started.

But it continues to urge caution, and to highlight the need to find those

who had contact with Ebola patients.  The largest outbreak of Ebola in human

history has infected 21,724 people and killed 8,641 - largely in just three

countries, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea.

 

COMMENTS:  Ebola symptoms include high fever, bleeding and central nervous

system damage.  The disease is spread by body fluids, such as blood and

saliva. The fatality rate can reach 90%, but the current outbreak has

mortality rate of about 70%.  There is an incubation period of two to 21

days.  There is currently no proven vaccine or cure, although a worldwide

effort is in effect to develop vaccines and medication.  Supportive care

such as rehydrating patients who have diarrhea and vomiting can help

recovery. It is believed that fruit bats, a delicacy for some West Africans,

are the virus's natural host.

 

Schools in Sierra Leone are to reopen in March, eight months after they were

closed because of the Ebola outbreak.  Measures are to be taken to ensure

that schools are a safe environment, the education minister said.  Teachers

are to be trained to use thermometers to take the temperatures and

chlorinated water in buckets are to be made available in schools.  Sierra

Leone has been worst affected by the Ebola outbreak which has killed more

than 8,600 people in West Africa.

 

COMMENTS:  On Monday, schools reopened after a five-month closure in Guinea,

where the outbreak began more than a year ago.  In Liberia, the other

country hit by the virus, schools are expected to open next month.   This is

an indication that the virus has been on the decline in the past two months.

However, there is concern that increased commerce and traffic at the end of

rainy season and the porous borders in the region will exacerbate the

epidemic in the coming months.

NORTHCOM:

 

US:

 

President Obama's State of the Union Address focused primarily on domestic

politics; however, the president did address a number of foreign policy

concerns. The President called upon Congress to pass a resolution to permit

the use of force against ISIL in Syria and Iraq.  He asked for more time to

negotiate with Iran on their nuclear program and stated that he would veto

any legislation calling for increased sanctions against Iran. 

 

Comment:  There are few areas of agreement between Congress and the

President on domestic politics, but the ISIL issue remains a potential area

of cooperation between the two branches of government. A resolution could

potentially escalate US involvement in the region.  President Obama has

repeatedly stated that "all options remain on the table" when dealing with

Iran's nuclear program, but continues to believe that diplomacy is the most

viable option at present.

 

Mexico:

 

The Mexican Embassy has taken note of the passage of the Department of

Homeland Security budget in the House of Representatives. The budget will

block the executive action President Obama announced on 20 November 2014

that would prevent the deportation of 4 million immigrants with irregular

status from the United States and allow them to remain in the US and obtain

work permits.

 

Comment: The Mexican government is monitoring the proposed budget and has

stated that President Obama's executive action has the potential to benefit

thousands of immigrants and recognizes their significant economic and

societal contributions to the United States. Remittances to Mexico have

decreased in recent years due to stricter border controls in the United

States. Remittances in Mexico decreased to $1.7 billion in November of 2014

from $2 billion in October of 2014. Mexico desires immigration policies

within the United States to remain open so as to continue to benefit their

economy.
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