Like it or not, the writing is on the wall

[Flyin6]

Munroe is an automotive genius. He is the #1 guy on the planet with respect to knowledge on how to build cars, setting up factories for automotive manufacturers, and has now pulled apart nearly every car being built today.

He thinks EVs are going to massively take over and the scaling up is really taking off.

The Texas factory is now producing 150 Model Y's a day with plans to ramp up to something like a new car every 45 seconds. This is not a passing whim or a fad. It is the end of things as we knew them for all our lives. No legacy auto manufacturer is anywhere close to Tesla, none. The best is little more than an embarrassment by comparison.

Being completely neutral about this, I do not think there is any doubt that the big three US auto manufacturers are in trouble of going away completely, and the EV car/truck/commercial market is going to be taken over by EVs. The change is coming and picking up pace.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RoDW91pnOtE

[TexasRedNeck]

Don 3% of the cars in CA are EVs and they can’t keep the grid up.


This has to be longer term horizon.  It’s just stupid to have an EV as an only car in this environment.

We’ll get there. But it will be a while


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[stlaser]

I’m with Charles (thankfully he said it before a Dave or Ken  ) I agree the infrastructure will take several decades I think. The lack of nuclear investment stateside has been lacking g for some time. Although there is big money being dumped into fusion technology lately.

[Flyin6]

I do not disagree with the shortage of the grid's ability to power our cars, especially the awfully mismanaged California. I do believe the IC cars are in trouble.

* People are going to learn about the cost savings of the electric car
* People are going to enjoy the power, nice ride, absence of required services, and overall lower cost of ownership
* I do believe the government will step in and "Bailout/rescue the big three because that industry is mostly unionized democratic voting people
* As surely as we had to build hundreds of thousands of gas stations, we will build in and are building in a more robust grid
* As the percentage of EV's increases, and the demand for oil and associated industries weakens, money will shift
because: Money follows the money
* EV technology is rapidly improving. Tesla, which is the clear leader, is now developing its next-generation battery. It is installed in Austin built Model
   Y's. The range of the cars is increasing, and the cost of the much fewer batteries is decreasing. The volume will really start to weigh in lowering the
   EV's price
* As the ratio starts to swing, gas stations will start to dry up. Oil companies saddled by increasing gov't regulation will be forced to increase prices
* The change will not be near term, but Over time. Not a couple of years but in the next ten, IC cars are going to be in serious trouble, and major car companies who are now clearly 10 years behind Tesla are not going to be competitive aside from government cash injections
* I stand fast in my view, that like it or not, EVs will carry the load in the future while we will still operate IC vehicles, albeit at a much higher cost.
* And finally, what happens when the number of IC vehicles starts to really decrease? Do you think parts manufacturers are going to want to invest in a market that is trending downward?

I firmly believe, from my limited exposure, but increasing study, we have seen the hay-day of cars burning gasoline.

[wyorunner]

Price will have to come down I think. Right now the average 100k earning family could not buy one I don’t think.

[Flyin6]

Price will have to come down I think. Right now the average 100k earning family could not buy one I don’t think.

2022 Nissan Leaf: $35,800
Volkswagen ID4 $37,500
Chevy Bolt $27,200-$32,000

[wyorunner]

Price will have to come down I think. Right now the average 100k earning family could not buy one I don’t think.

2022 Nissan Leaf: $35,800
Volkswagen ID4 $37,500
Chevy Bolt $27,200-$32,000

Wow! Not that I would buy any of that, but dang those are actually affordable.

[Flyin6]

Price will have to come down I think. Right now the average 100k earning family could not buy one I don’t think.

2022 Nissan Leaf: $35,800
Volkswagen ID4 $37,500
Chevy Bolt $27,200-$32,000

Wow! Not that I would buy any of that, but dang those are actually affordable.

I think that only Nissan is at the barely acceptable level. They are as far away from the tesla as this year's F350 compares to one from the 70s. Not joking, the technology used in all other EVs except Tesla and Rivian and perhaps that new truck manufacturer is way, way behind even the first gen Tesla. Elon is now somewhere around gen 5-6 with software, batteries, especially his neodymium motors, and things like the car is actually always connected to the net via its own LTE connection. It is a cell phone and a computer that you can sit in.

Not all that new of a technology. Almost all commercial jet aircraft's engines are always connected to the net and are always sending data to the manufacturer. It's just costly and too advanced for current car manufacturers except for Tesla.

and

I hate sounding like a Tesla commercial

but

I am spending several hours daily reading about the product, the man, the company, and the technology. I have now listened to dozens of engineers and industry experts who, btw, almost all own and drive Tesla cars. Elon was smart. He saw an opening and went big. He shot out of the chock blocks with something new with some of the best people on earth. Then he patented and copyrighted everything. His software engineers came from all the biggest projects mankind has created in the past decade and a half. There is no wonder why even the likes of Apple envy his software which is absolutely seamless. It just works all the time, and the software is the car. Now he did stuff two 572 big block chevies in there somewhere because that is the only way to explain how insanely fast these cars are!

EVs are going to replace most ICE cars and the change will accelerate going forward, shoddy grid or not. Heck, Duane purchased a bunch of solar panels which power some high-tech musk-style battery packs and those can now charge his car. He can actually operate an off-grid Tesla car if he wishes to do so. Technology and the grid will catch up because once the gen population figures out, they can drive a car for $30 a month and never have to change any oils or have transmission problems or any of that crap...once they do the math and figure all that out, you won't be able to find a crappy EV for sale anywhere for the next decade.

[Flyin6]

I am interested in seeing some real-life data on this Hummer super truck. If it has decent batteries and motors, and it might, and if GM is sorted with respect to the software, then we may have something. But so far it is just a great-looking concept with some great proposed specs.

[stlaser]

So you brought up a point of consideration which I’ll document shortly on another post I’ll start.

Energy is going to get more expensive, exponentially I think. It’s supply and demand and de dollarization if you will. I currently pay on an average month here in Colorado $3-$400 in electric utilities between shop and home.

I watch a couple off grid in north ID who just spent $50k all in on a system to power essentially my shop and home (they do a lot of what I do former 4x shop owners).

Simple math tells me it’s an investment that will pay dividends over the next 20 years which is their rough lifespan of the equipment.

50k off grid solar and batteries / controller along with mounting equipment

20 years x $350 = $84k at todays rate which will not hold…..

[Flyin6]

So you brought up a point of consideration which I’ll document shortly on another post I’ll start.

Energy is going to get more expensive, exponentially I think. It’s supply and demand and de dollarization if you will. I currently pay on an age month here in Colorado $3-$400 in electric utilities between shop and home.

I watch a couple off grid in north ID who just spent $50k all in on a system to power essentially my shop and home (they do a lot of what I do former 4x shop owners).

Simple math tells me it’s an investment that will pay dividends over the next 20 years which is their rough lifespan of the equipment.

50k off grid solar and batteries / controller along with mounting equipment

20 years x $350 = $84k at todays rate which will not hold…..

OK youngin, you've laid out your facts
but
What's your point?

[stlaser]

Ok, yeah I sidetracked a bit. However, my point was / is that the ev “revolution / evolution” is going to tax a lesser than adequate grid. Supply and demand will push energy costs much higher. We’re already seeing this with huge bills during storms and heat waves etc. I think those are insights into what will become “normal” within a few years.

Many of us have remote properties or are considering it and moving in that direction. I am currently & I think if you’re smart and trying to get ahead of curve in certain cases the ev may be an intelligent decision. In my case I’m looking at property that may or may not be tied to the grid. At present time the ev for myself makes no sense where I’m looking but in the meantime a $50k investment into an off grid power system does. You mentioned Duane doing such a thing possibly and he’s obviously ahead of the curve on several fronts maybe.

[TexasRedNeck]

I’ll stop short of calling you a fan boy Don, because Tesla makes a great product.4 of my team members have them.

Here is the likely progression.

Poeple buy the hype and overload the grid.  The government has to “bail out” many states to build their grid, which takes 10 years, in the mean time,  being unable to charge an Ev is reality during peak usage.

Consumer vehicles will transition first.  It is the long haul trucks, aviation and marine and agriculture that will still be burning diesel. The issues is that 45% of the production from a barrel of oil is gasoline.  As EVs ramp up gasoline will become very cheap and diesel will become stupid expensive.

Remember that oil is still needed for all the plastics used in medical supplies, and other myriad industries.  Not to mention cosmetics and et al.

So before we wean ourselves off oil there has to be a massive transformation in many other industries.  How long before we get rid of plastics and diesel?  Not in my lifetime.

So it will be interesting to see how low gasoline goes before the transition.  We may see some agriculture and other applications go back to gasoline from diesel as gas drops in price from the lower demand due to EVs.

All in all EVs are here to stay.  I say Ford is the one to watch other than Tesla.  GM is likely going to struggle.


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[Bob Smith]

So if a person can’t make it to work because they didn’t have power to recharge their car, will Biden and crew pay for their missed day?

[Flyin6]

So if a person can’t make it to work because they didn’t have power to recharge their car, will Biden and crew pay for their missed day?

You wish!
THose clowns really own us at the moment...

I think crazy cali is the only place which, is:
1. Almost forcing people to buy elecric vehicles
2. Shutting down coal and oil fired and of course nuke energy
3. and asking people with EV's to please not charge their vehicles

You people in crazy cali elected and continue to elect these people.

I wouldn't care if it didn't affect national security and if all crazy cali people just stayed there.