This war in the Ukraine is going to get bad and quick. Allow me to make the following observations:
Russian losses early on are huge. To me it looks like Putin bungled the invasion. Sun-Tzu suggests that one attack with overwhelming force, Putin did not. He attacked on four axis of advance with only 60,000 troops out of around 200,000 he had on available. That looks like a miscalculation to me. It looks like also Putin under estimated the intent of the Ukrainian people. He thought he would waltz in there like he did in the Crimea, but these Ukrainians are fighting hard for their country. Now Putin has to play catch-up.
The thing about attacks is that they have to have at least sufficient combat power, and his attack does not appear to have walked in with the big stick. The attack has to be utterly forceful and timed appropriately. Why you ask? Well an attacking Army will run out of everything pretty quick. Things like fuel, ammo, people, time, food will get used up fast. The logistical tail is probably the most important factor to a successful attack that takes any length of time. Sure you can conduct a special operations assault to snatch a person, get in and out, but when you start driving fuel sucking tanks around, you'll need to be able to refuel them every couple of days.
The supply lines are highly vulnerable. Tanker trucks are especially so, ask me how I know. One day in Afghanistan I was the air mission commander providing overwatch for a huge convoy that eventually stretched out to be sixty miles long. The Taliban waited until our helicopters were no longer concentrated, then they hit us. We lost three tankers that day.
That is just one example, one convoy on one day. Putin will have dozens of convoys going all the time. They will get chewed up by the Ukrainians and eventually he will lose much of his invading Army if he doesn't close this thing out soon.
But the war is expanding. Today a Japanese freighter was hit by Russian gunners with fatalities. The US Government is now telling US citizens in Belarus to get out. Why is that? Its because of what is coming.
Putin seems to have lost his mind to some extent. His taped release the other day threatening the use of a terrible response (Nuclear weapons?) is pretty uncharacteristic for a nation state leader. Well except for those like Hitler...
We have now heard talk by US analysts about the use of battlefield Tactical Nuclear Weapons. Ever hear anything like that before? Now for those of you who may not know this, in the US and I'm certain almost every other nation, the release of nuclear weapons can only come from the leader of that nation, the president. The Russians use a different system. At some point they will distribute these "smaller" nukes to their battlefield commanders. Those commanders will have some latitude with respect to employing them. A Russian Artillery Battalion Commander may still be in his thirties. That man may have a silver bullet in one of his ammo trucks. He may in an extreme instance be the last person in the chain of command who holds authority to release (fire) that weapon.
Now I know that is an extreme example, but it is never-the-less a remote possibility. So what if Putin is nuts? What if he is actually delusional? What if he sees this as his one and only chance to put the band back together? Why does he have 5,000-8,000 troops massed near the polish border? Those troops just happen to be close to our 82nd Airborne guys who will be helping with the refugee crisis that will happen in a day or two. What would happen if he pushes into Poland and our guys lock horns with him? Scary prospect right there, but here we sit, US and Russian forces not even 100 miles apart and there is a shooting war going on...hmmm...
I think at the very least Putin has calculated to take back the Ukraine for his own. I believe he will use this crisis to break apart NATO. That seems to already be happening. Germany, the largest military in Europe is pretty quiet. They need to be, they are currently running on Russian oil. Yup, nuclear power plants are bad...Russian oil is good! So is Italy. Germany sent helmets to the Ukraine as their initial aid package, while we sent Stinger and Javelin missiles. No doubt those stingers are what shot down a bunch of Russian fighters and our Javelins no doubt already killed a bunch of Russian tanks. (Can I say YIPPEE right here and not seem to be too politically incorrect??)
NATO lacks resolve. NATO is all that keeps the three Balkan states from not being overwhelmed by an aggressive Russia. I'm sorry folks but we are staring down the barrel of world war 3 and China hasn't even begun with its attack on Taiwan. Should NATO break up we are screwed. Should the war over there turn Nuclear, we are screwed. Should the war expand into western Europe, we are screwed. When China attacks Taiwan, we are really screwed.
Those of you who voted in this progressive government are squarely to blame and at fault. Weakness always allows bullies to have their way. Our withdraw from Afghanistan, a place where a bunch of us fought pretty Gosh darn hard, signaled to Putin that we have the weakest leadership we have had since Jimmy Carter. For those with a brain, you are about to see the world hand us our butt. Since this presidency cannot keep us safe, cannot control crime or even close our borders here we will likely be on our own. While idiots like the governor of California cries out, "Send us your homeless, Send us your drugs and crime, Send us your freedom haters, other idiots like Kerry are more concerned over the loss of the initiative for climate change!
Folks, we are really on our own...Oh and did I even mention a nuclear armed Iran? God help us!
