my postion on "preparedness"

[OldKooT]

The concept of preparing for a "emergency" is something that I feel is starting to look more and more like a business model to me. Not that I slight anyone who makes a buck off of the "concept" but I am starting to wonder at some "experts" credentials.

Let me try undoubtedly poorly, to explain my thoughts here.

The cart in front of the donkey approach to preparedness is starting to become a very popular approach sold/endorsed by many. This is the general concept of said approach.

First off instructing people to flee from a disaster is not exactly always good advice. If you buy rations, ammo, have a assault 4x4 and the latest goodies does not mean your capable of bettering your position of safety by "bugging out"

Use the example of a hurricane. It's been proven time and time again by history that people evacuating a hurricane in mass numbers makes the evacuation routes as dangerous or more so than sitting it out at home in some cases. A few hours if that into a evacuation, the authorities "steer" the path in which you can travel. Things become a man made disaster. Now not only do you have a storm barreling down at you slowly as Hurricanes do.... you have man made social unrest and panic. A very unpredictable situation at best.... so your assault 4x4,rifles, rations, extra fuel...may not be enough.

A sensible man and his family should be able to evacuate from a hurricane in a Prius while the family sings along to the music of their choice happily. The key? Your lifestyle I feel is the key to it all... The ability to "walk away" and return at some point in the future, is a hurricane evacuee's largest asset. If you have to run away.....you did not take life seriously.

You see/here on the news, the NOAA folks say it's a distinct chance a hurricane is aimed in your general direction. Lifestyle choices that allow you and your loved ones to simply calmly pack a bag, load a small cache of valuables ya can't replace with your well researched insurance policy, close your homes shutters and away you go. Your wife selects a Hotel, or a in-laws or somewhere reasonably safe selected from a list you all long ago decided on. Your biggest issue now is deciding what music to listen to.

This requires a job/postion you can call in and say see you in a week or so. This requires pets that can easily travel....rationally, a home that has a chance of weathering the storm without your assistance. (be nice to have something to return to if possible) and a understanding of your loved ones when u say lets go, you go. In other words your prepared for a vacation the Lord sent your direction, and you can watch the mass panic on TV from a safe distance while enjoying your week off work.

What I just suggested is practiced by very few, and is far more about simple lifestyle choices than "preparation"


 Where we live here, Tornadoes are so normal it's a common past time to chase them, observe them, and in some cases a family picnic while watching from a safe vantage point is prudent. You can't prepare to be struck by a Tornado. But you can change a lifestyle to accommodate one with reasonable comfort. Choices in home design, tree locations to your home, a basement and within that basement a storm vault. If your storm vault doubles as a safe place to store your homes canned goods, maybe a few tools, your camping gear, well your going to be just fine. Even if the dang thing nails you direct. You most likely need not purchase one thing, or practice any skills... you again just need to be aware of the situation, and laying in your storm vault watching TV when it is time. Owning a storm vault and living in Tornado alley isn't preparation, it should be a simple requirement and part of life if you live here.

How about this concept, why not just live and enjoy life at your hide site? Saves a boat load of headache if you think about it. Reduces untold expense, and sure simplifies things as well. You might be able to make $30k less a year income if you didn't need to own two properties, a $50k urban assault vehicle and all that goes with the bug out situation.

Everyone advises going to the "country" to flee a cities imploding for one reason or another. I have news for you, in a  large scale situation that could be extremely dangerous.  Here is why.... Our local community as an example has a "shut down plan" Simply put, if need should arise, they have a plan to secure the routes in and out of town and repel refugees.

Reason being, how in a situation of such severity would you know who to help/harbor and who's the predator looking to capitalize on the unrest? A simple circle the wagons approach, that is basically simple common sense. The fella rolling up to the road block guarded by well armed citizens/authorities in his "urban assault wagon" may be seen as more of a threat than a welcome refugee.

I am sure this type of "village plan" is actually more common than many may think. People who live in more rural areas are aware of what will happen when everyone leaves the city to find safety. The countryside becomes unsafe. Unless you can access a "hide site" without crossing major highways, communities, tightly bunched likely armed as well or better than you rural neighbors.... you may be in for a long if not almost impossible trip. If the "emergency" is that large a scale to make such a move prudent marshal law will be quickly enforced. Can you now avoid military law enforcement? (something that shouldn't exists)  Therm o imaging in air craft as a possible example, the likes of which I'd say almost no one can really simply defeat in any confident manor and still get a family to safety. New Orleans is a small early example of how this works... those that didn't leave became prisoners...some rounded up or worse by Uncle Sam's paid mercenaries. Those prisoners had their constitutional rights removed and became sheep instantly. I don't believe for one sec in a large scale disaster that would not happen most everywhere there is a guard unit, military post/base and so on. Good American soldiers called to help restore order...and possibly becoming the major threat to survival for many. Or Mercenary's owned bought and paid for to handle the people... They learned with New Orleans, they learned On the East Coast, they have been quicker each time with the "goverment protection"

Again it would seem lifestyle changes, possible locations choices/changes tough as they may be to make, would be a far more sure fire way to weather such situations. Simple, smart intelligent location choices to live, career changes, will pay off much better than the latest assault rifle scope and 1500 more rounds you'll likely never have the chance to fire.

I am no expert, I can not see the future, but I am fairly observant. Our Military a extension of the law these days has been training for such situations. Be it intentional or not is hardly the debate or focus. Urban warfare is common place now in their training. Patrols over cities by aircraft on routine training missions are common. Mock drills held in our urban areas may be innocent enough quality training experiences..... but those men still now have the experience, the leaders the mission plans and again experience/practice. Our men who defend this country will happily secure cities, roads, infrastructure for the good of the nation. IF... you are perceived to be a threat to that goal....yeah.

Hide site? Or no reason to escape and hide? Which one has a better chance of success.

Donkey in front of the cart...or cart in front of the donkey?

[Wilbur]

I like your comments. I agree that a lot of people start with the "we have to have this equipment" without thinking through the realities of the (as Paul Harvey would say) "The rest of the story". I have had so many conversations with people who have never been in the woods, who have never had a garden, who have never been out of a city/suburb, etc. who tell me they are going to go live off the land. I ask what will they grow, how will they raise meat, how will they have water, etc. "Well....we'll hunt and have a garden."  ::)

I totally agree with you on the village/society things too with the reliance on the Government causing serious weakness among us.

I am currently going through all the things I want/like from a food standpoint and saving recipes/how to do, etc. (hard copies) for things like making cheese (just an example I was looking at over the weekend), making soap, water systems, etc. The last thing I want to have happen is the world to go black and I need my computer to access the "must haves" that I don't already have (recipes, how to do things etc.). I buy lots of books as well for the same reason.

Things like "Country Wisdom and Knowhow":

http://www.amazon.com/Country-Know-How-Editors-Publishings-Bulletins/dp/1579123686/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441817552&sr=1-1&keywords=country+wisdom+and+know+how

or "Five Acres and Independence":

http://www.amazon.com/Country-Know-How-Editors-Publishings-Bulletins/dp/1579123686/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1441817552&sr=1-1&keywords=country+wisdom+and+know+how

I have a lot of the Foxfire books from when I was a kid (My Mom had bought a lot of them) and they are great as well.
 
http://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_8?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=foxfire+books+complete+sets&sprefix=foxfire+%2Cstripbooks%2C178&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3Afoxfire+books+complete+sets

   

[KensAuto]

I would assume that the majority of people don't have a clue as to how close rural people are to each other, and how they stand together when the chips are stacked.

[JR]

Heck, where I am just blow a couple bridges and we lock the entire bay area out pretty much.

Now that said I am right here in suburbia otherwise. Unless I can go early, I plan to hunker down.

[TexasRedNeck]

Norm, interesting point of view.  Some I agree with. Thanks for sharing. A couple of thoughts

As in life timing is everything and plans can be a false sense of security (especially those promulgated by the business model crowd of "survivalists".  I've lived and lived through the hurricane preparedness/evacuation scenarios all my life.  I've seen what a mere 2 hour head start can do.  I've seen societal norms break down before my eyes.  I've seen tens of thousands stranded on the road without fuel and wondered if I was going to have to shoot my way through because I had fuel on board. 

You are correct regarding a hurricane.  The minute it looks like its heading your way, you have to hit the eject button and walk away.  Nothing you own is worth your family's safety.

The real question is: can one know the right timing for other scenarios and can you get to a second location? 

Ideally, one would forgo the urban lifestyle for rural, but it is a balance of risk/reward.  Not everyone can make a living in a rural environment nor are they willing to cut their income by 75% or more, thus they balance the risks and make individual choices about where that balance point lies.  It is also a worthwhile mental exercise to consider whether you could fire on a law enforcement or other government personnel violating your constitutional rights. (e.g. confiscating weapons in NOLA)

That is why my BOL location is also my retirement location/retirement plan.  All durable goods I acquire are a store of future value and potentially pre-funding my retirement.  So the key, in my chosen plan, is the early warning system, communications, and scenario role playing.  Unless we have a direct hit from a nuke, I have a high degree of confidence in my families ability to make the necessary exit to our secondary location, or the tertiary location of a family member which is in the opposite direction.

I'm blessed with the resources to make those commitments, but it means not trying to keep up with the joneses as I prioritize.  My plan is to permanently eject to the BOL/RL in 5 years as I believe the risk curve is accelerating with time and that is my plan and horizon.

I also have to have faith that the LORD is in control and my plan is sufficient.

[OldKooT]

TRN....I think many here most likely have the common sense to avoid many "bug out" pitfalls. That said, I also feel most here aren't an average user base either.

You are a good example of that. Having done the hurricane reality, you have a good idea of your locations challenges. So your very qualified to evaluate your plan accordingly. I imagine faced with the same evacuation situation with the added challenge of a goverment "help" force not wanting you to leave, may possibly change that picture. But again you have practical real time experience in your locality. Many who read books, web sites and research do not have that foresight of experience.

If I was in your area and a emergency arose...I'd think you'd be a invaluable resource to tap.

[Farmer Jon]

I have thought alot about this. Spring and fall sitting on a tractor for hours on end alone with my thoughts. I would be a sitting duck out here in the country. No way I could protect my family from the roving gangs that no doubt would be going door to door. I wont go into detail but my plan is to hold out here as long as possible then take all my food and valuables pack up my camper and go to town. Abandoning the home we love for safety of town. These are small towns of just a couple thousand people and I know a lot of people. The nearest town Pender Ne 8 miles away is on the edge of the indian reservation. They have been fighting for years over boundary disputes. No doubt they would be under attack constantly. The town sits out there kind of by its self in the hills.
 I would go the the next closest town in the opposite direction. Beemer. 10 miles away Its on a river so its there is a food source. ITs on a major highway. The next towns  on either side are 10 to 12 miles away. It lays on flat ground. I just think it would be safer.
Now if I were by my self I would probably stay here and bug in. There are plenty of places on this farm to hide my stuff for when the gangs come. but I have to think of the safety of my family.
I'm not building some big bug out vehicle but i do have a 80 Chevy 4x4 that i am starting to restore just because I like it. It also has no computers so dont have to worry about EMP frying the electronics. ITs 3/4 ton so I can pull my camper with it if need be.
At any given time I have several weeks of food on hand. Especially since I started canning. There are times we get snowed in for several days at a time. When you live on a farm i dont care if you are 2 miles out of town or 20 you need some sort of food stors expecally in winter.

[OldKooT]

I would assume that the majority of people don't have a clue as to how close rural people are to each other, and how they stand together when the chips are stacked.

Ken..... I have been noticing more and more this exact truth. I can't say for all areas of the country by any means but I know around these parts it would be tough to move undetected or freely in the "country" in any tense situation.

Example: I don't think you could drive down any section gravel here unobserved. Most of these roads are only used by locals who have a reason to use them. Buy a new pickup, take a drive down a section road, chances are you'll find a local has took a look-see to make sure you belong here. Be it a actual drive past to make sure your not lost...or a quick scan of your plate via binocular. Something out of the "normal" sticks out obviously. With the advent of theft of our copper wire, vandalism and theft of irrigation plant equipment and the like..a farmer here has ZERO problems parking his pickup across the road, and him you and his rifle are going to have what will be a friendly chat....unless he has reason to be concerned, it may not be friendly then. Chances are while your chatting, a hired hand, a son, a neighbor has blocked the other end of the road "in case" there was a need.

Meth cooker eradication: A bit like "training drills" country folk out this way have had this to deal with for ages now. We will get what we call "crackpots" from Denver, KC, Tulsa you name it up this way looking for a safe secure place to make their product. They go to elaborate lengths to find places to set up their labs/kitchens whatever they refer to them as.

So stuff you don't see on the news, don't read in the paper.... are the many altercations that have resulted. Our local gun store actually has a AR platform they build called the "Meth DR" locally. It and others like it have become a common pickup accessory found almost everywhere. Just typing this I realized my hired hands alone most likely represent 6-10 assault rifles, and probably at least 100Rds of ammo per pickup. I am the least armed of most farmers I know. I carry a old Mauser and a .17 varmint rifle. The latter having run off a few "cookers" a year on average.

Around here you don't call the law... they are 45 min away if that close. You handle it yourself. Our local towns PD will NOT leave the city limits, the sheriffs are few and far between and keep busy, and the state patrol is not likely to leave pavement unless basically forced to. (unless it's a DOT officer trying to catch one of us running overweight during harvest) This means people lookout for each other.

A unlikely point most may not realize: Technology protection. If you don't think you can get shot trying to sample someones seed corn technology think again. We employ wireless umbrellas, cameras, motion detectors and some guys actually will post guards if as an example a Monsanto truck was seen in the area LoL

Livestock rustling is on the rise as well..again people will and do protect their herds. I know a of a firefight just a few weeks back involving an attempted rustling of cattle. I'd be doubtful any LE was involved in any way BTW.

I could probably write a book on just why the thinking escaping to the country is not as easy and simple as many think...or even just driving through it in a tense national situation could be very dangerous. Where we lived in Wisconsin wasn't much different...just possible a bit more subtle. And given it's been well over a decade... it may have gotten less subtle these days.

[OldKooT]

Jon.... I know yr area fairly well. Well, to get around anyway....think tractor pulls LoL  We also spent quite some time in Pilger not long ago helping out.  Did you get hammered by the storms last night like we did? So muddy here my wife stuck the pickup a mile from the house this morning.

Interesting your perspective in your area. I could see you point being safer in the small communities there. Good folks in these parts I feel.

[TexasRedNeck]

Around here you don't call the law... they are 45 min away if that close. You handle it yourself.

Getting to be that way in the city now too...

Great perspective Norm,  I learned a few things

[Farmer Jon]

Didnt get much rain here. Just enough to make the dirt stick to my boots.

[OldKooT]

2.6" looks like.... pickling pivots today, such a rewarding task LoL

[JR]

I hope we get average at least here. They "say" it will be better than, but you know the weather.

Norm, although not my land I have done that once or twice. Locals or sheriff never did show up but neither did the guys shooting our irrigation pipes.

I keep several months of food and water (don't forget that) but in diff places and containers. If you do get hit, you may not loose it all.

Now back to the weather, it is a tad hot here right now; 

[Sammconn]

Umm, if I may 112 is more like disgusting than a tad is it not? Even for those that see it?

Mama informed me that it was in the mid 30's last night.
I've been suffering in the mid 90's and 6000% humidity in Ottawa Ontario.
At the international military shooting competition, having a ball but melting...

[Flyin6]

It's definitely the humidity and not so much the heat that affects one. In Kandahar from sometime in June until later in September it is never below 100F. I'm talking at 3AM. We look forward to the first time it dips down to 99 for an hour or so before sunrise.

But there it was so dry the dust made dust. You almost couldn't sweat. You just got gritty with the fluid (Sweat) leaving the sweat gland then evaporating leaving it's find deposit of salt behind. So by the end of the day you have all these white lines all over your clothes from the salt that was in your person.

If you added humidity to that, hang it up. I don't actually know how hot it gets there. I have a photo showing 128F, but that was likely in the sun and just the plastic thermometer melting.
Our aircraft has OAT gages (Outside air temp) and they went from -40C to +50C. Many days I saw the pointer out of the range above the fifty mark. 50C = 122F so we might have danced with the upper 120's!

[JR]

That was driving through town, under some trees and such. Stayed 109+ while picking up the kiddys.

Yep, I feel you with the humidity but I doubt it was as bad for me as for you. Mine was near the Salton Sea, well above the equator,,,,,,,