ISIL:
On Tuesday 20 January 2015, a video surfaced of a masked man wielding a
knife and claiming to be an Islamic State member threatening to kill two
Japanese men they had kidnapped unless Japan paid $200 million dollars to
ISL within 72-hours. Japanese officials believe that the deadline will end
at approximately 1450 (Japan Time) on 23 January 2015. Japan is continuing
efforts with the international community to release the hostages. Foreign
Minister Fumio Kishida released a statement saying, "Amid a severe
situation, we will make our best efforts to ensure an early release of the
hostage". When asked whether they will respond to negotiations for ransom,
Kishida stated, "Our country will never give in to terrorism. We will
continue to fight terrorism in partnership with other countries".
Comment: The ransom amount is the same amount that Japan's Prime Minister
recently pledged as a contribution against ISIL and to aid refugees during a
recent tour in the Middle East. This is likely a statement by ISIL, as they
believe Japan's contribution is merely aimed at killing Muslims, though
Japanese officials have disputed that claim.
Syria:
After being forced to retreat by Kurdish forces in Kobani, ISIL is likely
going to target Hasakah in Syria next. There are reports that ISIL is
massing forces for an offensive attack to capture Hasakah.
Comment: It is understandable that ISIL would target Hasakah from a
strategic standpoint, as it dominates the roads between Mosul and Raqqa,
both which ISIL currently controls. It is also the southern access to
Jazeera canton of the Kurdish Rojava region. If it does come to a clash in
the area, there is no doubt U.S. led airstrikes will play an important role
as they did in Kobani.
Yemen: The Houthi rebellion, which began in late 2004, has allegedly reached
a point that the Yemeni government has stated it will resign and give in to
the rebels according to officials. This news is likely to do with the
rebellion capturing areas outside the presidential palace earlier this week.
More reporting will occur once more information is released.
Comment: For the situation to reach this level is a very significant event.
As of right now, there is not enough information released to make an
assessment, though this news could have drastic effects if the Yemeni
government follows through.
Saudi Arabia:
King Abdallah died. His half-brother Crown Prince Salman is King and his
brother Muqrin is the new Crown Prince, Neither man is young, but the
succession is clear for now.
Special comment: Be prepared for policy changes. The instinctive reaction of
living systems is to contract during times of internal stress, and even more
so during a leadership crisis. Leadership transition is a time of
vulnerability. Most systems increase their defensive vigilance during that
period. Applying that to Saudi Arabia, guards will be extra vigilant to
protect the new King and the Crown Prince.
Yemen:
President Hadi submitted a letter of resignation to parliament. He
reportedly wrote that the country had reached a dead end. Parliament has not
yet accepted the resignation and will deliberate it when it convenes on 25
January, according to the official news agency. The Houthis control the
capital, but have been careful to state that they have not taken over the
government and will not comment on the situation until after parliament
makes a decision. The Houthis consider Hadi the president of the country
still.
Comment: Few news outlets have reported that one of the major Houthi
grievances against the Hadi government is that the draft constitution would
establish a federal state in Yemen. The leader of the movement, Abdulmalik
al Houthi, insists on a unitary state.
AFRICA:
NIGERIA:
A German hostage kidnapped by Boko Haram in Nigeria six months ago has been
freed after a military raid led by Cameroonian forces and their allies, the
Cameroon presidency said Wednesday. "A special operation led by Cameroonian
armed forces along with security services of friendly nations succeeded this
night in freeing Robert Nitsch Eberhard, a German citizen abducted in
Nigeria in July 2014 by the Boko Haram sect," the presidency said in a
statement.
COMMENTS: Boko Haram has seized control of towns and villages in north-east
Nigeria and launched raids into Cameroon. It is not clear which countries
contributed to the operation to free Robert Nitsch Eberhard. Founded in
2002, Boko Haram initially focused on opposing Western education. Boko
Haram means "Western education is forbidden" in the Hausa language. Boko
Haram launched military operations in 2009 to create an Islamic state. They
have abducted hundreds, including at least 200 schoolgirls and control
several north-eastern towns. Thousands have been killed, mostly in
north-eastern Nigeria; Boko Haram has also attacked police and UN
headquarters in capital, Abuja.
Nigeria's national security adviser has urged the electoral commission to
delay next month's elections to allow more time for voter card distribution.
Sambo Dasuki, speaking in London, said 30 million cards had been distributed
over the last year but the same number still remained to be handed out. The
elections, scheduled for 14 February, are the first in Nigeria to require
voters to have biometric cards. The measure was introduced to guard against
electoral fraud.
COMMENTS: Current Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has called for
substantial corruption reform in recent years. He has recently come under
fire for failing to effectively combat the Boko Haram insurgency in the
northern portion of the country. The mass displacement of people is thought
to benefit his bid for re-election by preventing potential voters from
registering for voter cards. Financial discrepancies of Nigeria's oil
revenues and the US freezing of $458 million have also cast into doubt
President Jonathan's seriousness combating, and perhaps complicity,
corruption. Delaying next month's election is also thought to benefit
President Jonathan in a tight election race.
EBOLA:
There has been a "turning point" in the Ebola crisis, with cases falling in
the three affected countries, World Health Organization officials say. Just
eight cases were detected in Liberia in the last week down from a peak of
500-a-week in September. Guinea and Sierra Leone have also seen falls. The
WHO said the figures were the "most promising" since the outbreak started.
But it continues to urge caution, and to highlight the need to find those
who had contact with Ebola patients. The largest outbreak of Ebola in human
history has infected 21,724 people and killed 8,641 - largely in just three
countries, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Guinea.
COMMENTS: Ebola symptoms include high fever, bleeding and central nervous
system damage. The disease is spread by body fluids, such as blood and
saliva. The fatality rate can reach 90%, but the current outbreak has
mortality rate of about 70%. There is an incubation period of two to 21
days. There is currently no proven vaccine or cure, although a worldwide
effort is in effect to develop vaccines and medication. Supportive care
such as rehydrating patients who have diarrhea and vomiting can help
recovery. It is believed that fruit bats, a delicacy for some West Africans,
are the virus's natural host.
Schools in Sierra Leone are to reopen in March, eight months after they were
closed because of the Ebola outbreak. Measures are to be taken to ensure
that schools are a safe environment, the education minister said. Teachers
are to be trained to use thermometers to take the temperatures and
chlorinated water in buckets are to be made available in schools. Sierra
Leone has been worst affected by the Ebola outbreak which has killed more
than 8,600 people in West Africa.
COMMENTS: On Monday, schools reopened after a five-month closure in Guinea,
where the outbreak began more than a year ago. In Liberia, the other
country hit by the virus, schools are expected to open next month. This is
an indication that the virus has been on the decline in the past two months.
However, there is concern that increased commerce and traffic at the end of
rainy season and the porous borders in the region will exacerbate the
epidemic in the coming months.
NORTHCOM:
US:
President Obama's State of the Union Address focused primarily on domestic
politics; however, the president did address a number of foreign policy
concerns. The President called upon Congress to pass a resolution to permit
the use of force against ISIL in Syria and Iraq. He asked for more time to
negotiate with Iran on their nuclear program and stated that he would veto
any legislation calling for increased sanctions against Iran.
Comment: There are few areas of agreement between Congress and the
President on domestic politics, but the ISIL issue remains a potential area
of cooperation between the two branches of government. A resolution could
potentially escalate US involvement in the region. President Obama has
repeatedly stated that "all options remain on the table" when dealing with
Iran's nuclear program, but continues to believe that diplomacy is the most
viable option at present.
Mexico:
The Mexican Embassy has taken note of the passage of the Department of
Homeland Security budget in the House of Representatives. The budget will
block the executive action President Obama announced on 20 November 2014
that would prevent the deportation of 4 million immigrants with irregular
status from the United States and allow them to remain in the US and obtain
work permits.
Comment: The Mexican government is monitoring the proposed budget and has
stated that President Obama's executive action has the potential to benefit
thousands of immigrants and recognizes their significant economic and
societal contributions to the United States. Remittances to Mexico have
decreased in recent years due to stricter border controls in the United
States. Remittances in Mexico decreased to $1.7 billion in November of 2014
from $2 billion in October of 2014. Mexico desires immigration policies
within the United States to remain open so as to continue to benefit their
economy.