Ross Rant 05162018


World history is about to change in Asia and the Mideast, and all for the better.  It will be a change that affects events for multi generations:


The press is now widely reporting that the N Korea mountain where the nukes were tested, and Kim had his main nuke facilities, has collapsed, and killed maybe 200 workers and scientists. In short, Kim possibly has no nuke program any longer. China has seen radiation in the air near their border, and they will not tolerate this. The sanctions have really had an impact, and it is getting worse, and China is not bailing them out.  In short, Kim has no alternatives left but to do a real deal with Trump. There really will be an agreement that works. Trump, unlike Obama, is not hung up on human rights as a priority, but instead wants the end of nukes and missiles first. China wants no part of any war on their border. Kim no longer has a viable nuke program when the mountain collapsed. This is the ideal time to strike a real deal, as opposed to the disaster of the Iran deal where we had Iran collapsing and Obama and Kerry bailed them out, and funded all their efforts to control the region. I predict there will be a real agreement in N Korea, and it will hold because Trump and Pompeo and Mattis are realists and not ideologues, and because Trump and Xi understand each other. There will be no desperate deal with all the money up front.


Iran is now in a bad situation, and there is a real opportunity there to crush them. This time, the Arabs are with Israel, Trump has made it clear he will have Israel’s back,  the  Sunni Arabs want to see regime change in Tehran as much as Israel does, and Israel just taught Iran that in a war, Iran will get crushed. Israel wiped out all of Iran’s military bases and equipment in Syria in a couple of hours, at no cost to itself. It showed that its missiles and fighter aircraft can penetrate at will. That happened while Netanyahu was sitting next to Putin in Moscow. That was very meaningful. Putin seems to know backing Iran against Israel will be a loser for him.   He gets it far better than Merkel and Macron. He did nothing at all when Israel attacked, and said nothing after. Note that not one Arab nation stood up for Iran. Even Assad did little.  If Iran tries to rebuild its bases in Syria, Israel will just destroy them again.  This changes all of the calculus of Iran’s plan. They lost their capacity to launch attacks on Israel other than thru Hezbollah. We just had a major historic inflection point, and most of the US media barely noticed. Israel would never have done this under Obama because he did not have their back, and he would probably have publicly condemned Israel. Trump changed everything. And now with the end of the US in the nuke deal, and major sanctions being reset, Iran has real problems. Iran only has Hezbollah and Hamas now, and Hamas is coming apart in Gaza.  We see now that all Hamas can do is send fools to be killed trying to breach the fence.  They are impotent, which is why they are of no help to Iran. Israel has found a way to stop the tunnels and they seem to have no more rockets. The economy there has collapsed, and no Arab nation is funding them.    As my friend indicated, the Palestinians are on their own now, and have no financial capacity. Gaza is in a state of economic and social collapse. They are no real threat to Israel, and Iran cannot be of much help in Gaza with new sanctions by the US. Egypt maintains a tight blockade. Many will get killed this week when they try and fail to crash the border. Iraq is not joining any war on Israel or the US. That leaves Assad and Hezbollah. Assad is not able to attack Israel, so he is a nonstarter. Hezbollah has 125,000 rockets to fire at Israel, but you might notice, Israel is not attacking Hezbollah. There have been stories lately that the people in the areas that supply the fighters for Hezbollah are seeing hundreds of their sons killed or badly wounded fighting for Assad and Iran, and for no benefit to the Lebanese. Some speculate that initiating a new war against Israel on behalf of Iran will not be the first priority of these people. The Houthis are slowly being killed by the Saudis, and the siege of the area they hold, so they are no help to fight Israel.  Putin is not going to start a war with Israel to help Iran, and have to deal with Trump and Mattis. It is one thing to support Assad in Syria, and a very different thing to take on Israel and the US. Trump has now demonstrated that he is not afraid to use military attacks in the Mideast, even when Russian troops are close by. With Obama gone, the calculus is completely changed. The Saudis and Emirates will quietly help Israel, as will Egypt and Jordan.  Egypt needs Israel to destroy ISIS in the Sinai, so they owe Israel now. So Iran is alone in an all-out war with Israel.  This is not 1967. Iran cannot win a war with Israel.  Trump will cut Iran off from the US dollar banking system, and he will force the EU to stop their deals. With all of this, the Iranian people are already having strikes and protests. 35% of Iranians are really Azerbaijanian. They do not want to be Iranian. As the sanctions start to really disrupt the economy., the people will protest more and make it harder for the regime to start a major war with Israel. If Merkel and Macron would get aboard, this would accelerate the problems for the regime, but that is not likely. Merkel does not get it. She is still more interested in business deals, than terminating the regime. It is too bad she remains in power. Ironic that it is the Germans who do not get it.


The Israeli attack in Syria was very large and detailed. It had to have been well planned for weeks, just waiting for Iran to do something to trigger it. There is no way Israel would be able to pull this off in the detail accuracy and complexity without the US somehow involved in intelligence sharing. The GPS coordinates, cyber-attacks to debilitate Syrian anti air, and the aerial photos likely had some input from CIA and the Pentagon. Despite Hilary, Kerry and others working to derail Trump on Iran, it is becoming even more clear ending the nuke deal is the exact right thing to do at this time. Now the US can reimpose severe sanctions and bring about much more unrest inside Iran. All the statements by many on the left that ending the deal will prevent a deal with N Korea are already being proved completely wrong. We don’t know most of what is really going on, but based on past Mossad efforts, and now with CIA involved aggressively, you can be sure there are things happening to undermine the Iranian regime and the military.


Iran could attack Israel, but the blowback to them would be severe. They have only two ports, and those would quickly be destroyed by Israel, as would much of their military capacity. Their economy would collapse. Their missiles would be shot down by Iron Dome and Israel’s other anti air systems. This time Israel is ready for war. If Iran attacked a US ship in the gulf, then Trump would launch an all-out attack, and joining with Israel and the Saudis, Iran would get crushed quickly. I am sure Netanyahu is coordinating with Trump, and Israel and the CIA and Pentagon have joint planning and joint cyber warfare attacks on Iran. Hezbollah would likely attack, and it would be ugly with all those missiles, but then the US might join in to attack Hezbollah under the theory we are coming to the aid of an ally. It would all be very messy and a lot of dead, but in the end Iran gets wiped, Hezbollah loses its only support, and everything in the world changes. I believe Iran knows all this, and Trump will now squeeze them until they bleed, with or without the EU. He does not care what the EU or the left in the US  says. As my friend said, he has already told Merkel and Macron, “you have accomplished nothing, and look what I have accomplished in N Korea”. Trump gets it, the EU, as usual, does not. The next several months in the Mideast are going to set the stage for the next several decades, and Trump ending the nuke deal with reestablishment of sanctions, and fully supporting Israel, is the difference. Ending the nuke deal, and moving the embassy will prove to be absolutely the right thing. (my liberal friends are by now going nuts with my view).


Bottom line, N Korea will get resolved because Pompeo has done a great job preparing the ground, China is on board, and Kim has no choices now. After the air attacks, Israel has the upper hand, and Iran is now isolated. There might be a war, but Israel and the US would win quickly, and there would be regime change in Iran eventually. Iran does not have a powerful military compared to Israel and the US. War with Iran might be the best strategy now, and would result in a massive change in the Mideast for the better.  It might be the only viable solution now, just as war was the only solution for Hitler. The situation is analogous. Obama was Chamberlain, and Trump is Churchill who was also hated by the left. (go see Darkest Hour). For my liberal friends, that likely sounds dreadful, and just feeds their view of Trump as dangerous, and me as nuts. I see it as geopolitics and  power politics played as it should be, with the US in control of events again. Regan revisited. War is often the only real solution where there is a regime like in Iran, which is analogous to Hitler. In the end, we would win, and Putin would have to fall in line. Xi will also see that he needs to work with Trump, and not get into a military confrontation with the US just as we are rebuilding our military power. Lots of people would be killed in an Israel -Iran war, but that is what happens when there is a crazy ideology and maniacs in power as we have in Iran, and as we had in Nazi Germany and the various kingdom’s before and during WWI.  Chalk the dead up to Obama and the nuke deal and failure to support the revolution taking place in 2009. Add those dead to the dead in Syria due to Obama failure to act. War now would be better than a bigger war later, if that is what it takes to get regime change in Iran. There are no nice diplomatic solutions or agreements like Obama did that will work.  Surely by now it should be obvious to all that the nuke deal only fed Iran’s ability to become aggressive with $150 billion and the lifting of sanctions. With Iran defeated, the entire world geopolitics changes, and I think Trump, Pompeo, Mattis, and Bolton understand this, and they are willing to go for it. Now is the moment. Especially since they will have Israel lead the battle, and not the US. We will see what happens over the next few months, and what Iran does about being wiped out in Syria. This is one of those major historic inflection points. Stay tuned in. Obama’s nuke deal and his dissembling of the US military, just made it all far worse than if he had dealt with Iran eight years ago. History repeats. Strength by the US matters, and horrible regimes eventually have to be destroyed.


If both N Korea and Iran are dealt with ,then  Republicans keep the House and Trump is unbeatable in 2020.  But the press prefers to focus on a stripper, Michael Cohen, and an investigation that has no basis.


Joel Ross


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